price inflation and revaluation of wages in Cameroon: What impact on food consumption expenditure of households? The food crisis is a global phenomenon and has become the priority of the international community, particularly the IMF and World Bank. The African continent is most affected by this scourge'''', coupled with rising food prices and some of the inputs to the social and economic development (cement, rebar, etc.).
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Cameroon has experienced in February 2008, three days of high tension marked by riots that led to three major decisions:
- Revaluation of 15% of base salary workers paid from the state budget;
- The falling price of a liter of fuel at the pump, 6FCFA and for the super 5FCFA for gasoil and kerosene;
- Lower prices of food products (rice, flour, sugar, imported fish, etc..), telephone and electricity.
These decisions marked a new era for Cameroon, who saw an early solution to their discontent. However, these measures did they represent swords of Damocles above our heads?
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This reflection aims to analyze the causes of rising commodity prices and its impact on food consumption expenditure of households. This analysis is based on the assumption that rising commodity prices is the result of speculation by traders and farmers.
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1. The causes of rising prices
Several causes are attributed to higher commodity prices, among other things include the decline of local production and international quotas imposed by the exporting countries, and speculation by traders and local producers.
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Speculation is a human activity is to imagine, to anticipate the reactions and activities of others, as if we were in his place, and take a look at our own activity, as if we were a another. This is for an economic agent to deliberately price risk is to buy now say a financial asset or other property in the hope that its price will rise, and we can sell it tomorrow with profit (Giraud
[1] , 2002). Despite being the subject of moral condemnation, should we still condemn the speculators?
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For some economists, speculation would be destabilizing and likely to engage in the real economy on non-optimal paths, that is to say prevent them from reaching the highest level of growth and possible use. For others, the speculators would not risk buying with other economic players to get rid of them these Risks are inherent in the economic system, as generated by an irreducible uncertainty about the future.
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Two fundamentals suggest that speculators should not be condemned: the rationality of traders and producers (their goal is to have the highest profit), and asymmetric information ( the same information is not shared by the state, producers and traders, and if so, it is not perceived in the same way).
Indeed, objectives set by the state, particularly in terms of tax revenues are slowing the emergence and development of small businesses, small merchant and owner of a stall. Suppliers eager to profit therefore anticipate an increase in taxes (import tax discharge, etc..), Fuel pump, foreign demand, and create shortages of stock markets. The scarcity of products and increased local demand and the foreign lead to an adjustment in prices, which increase their markets. The figure below illustrates this situation.
The price increase is the direct result of speculation by traders, which itself is caused by expectations of higher taxes, prices of some inputs, and a possible increased demand from neighboring countries.
2. The impact of higher prices on food consumption expenditure of households
There is a positive relationship between increased income and purchasing power, and an inverse relationship between higher prices and purchasing power. What may be the result of the combined effect of a wage increase and higher prices on food consumption expenditure of households during the same period? Do a simulation with an official from a food basket of consumer goods: rice, fresh fish (mackerel), sugar, bread and milk. Consider
an official of the class A2, index 605, grade: A general practitioner, married with two children. His net monthly salary rose from 204,000 CFA francs before the presidential decree According to CFA 234,000.
- Suppose for breakfast daily, this agent 300FCFA buys bread, sugar and milk 100FCFA 200FCFA (four sacks, sold 50FCFA unit)
- Suppose that for a meals daily, this agent of the state consumes one kilogram of fish sold 950FCFA and a kilogram of rice sold 400FCFA [2] ;
- Finally, suppose that the necessary ingredients to make this meal cost about 1000FCFA.
The daily expenditure for the nutrition of the household is estimated at 2950FCFA or 88500FCFA month. This expenditure was evaluated 79500FCFA per month for the same food consumption two years ago (the price of a kilogram of fish cost so 700FCFA and the price of a kilogram of rice worth 350FCFA).
The different configurations are presented in the table below:
Based on these estimates, the food expenditure represents approximately 37.82% monthly wage of this agent state, against 38.97% two years ago. It should be noted that this proportion was much high before the wage increase because of rising market prices, accounting for 43.38% while monthly salary.
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Before the pay rise, the share of wages for food consumption rose from 38.97% to 43.38% , an increase of 4.41 %. After upgrading, this share increased from 43.38% to 37.82% , a decrease of expenditure for Consumer 5.56% . Moreover, if prices had remained the same as those recorded two years before, a 15% revaluation would lead to a net reduction in spending 5% for the selected basket ( 33.97% -38, 97%).
It is thus noted that the combined effect of rising prices and wage increase led to an increase in food expenditures of 4.41% and a decrease of these 5.56%, a net decrease of 1.15% both periods.
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Although reclamation has reduced the share of wages to the cost of food consumption, we note that rising prices created a gap of 3.85% ( 5% -1.15% ) in the reduction of consumer spending for the basket of goods chosen.
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[1] Pierre Noël Giraud, "Should we condemn speculation? "Economic Alternatives, June 2002 [ 2] Prices are those observed in the markets of Douala and Yaounde in November 2008.